Back to Blackberry and Loving It!

Back to Blackberry and Loving It!

Or Top Ten Reasons To Like Blackberry Over Iphone

I just switched back to Blackberry (Bold 9780) after a failed experiment for the last year with the iphone4. I am so pleased by the move and I can't say enough good things about the Blackberry. It's a shame the company gets such a bad rap in the press right now as the product is excellent, especially for business use. Here are a few details about why I'm glad I made the switch. (for any questions/comments please leave a comment below and I will do my best to respond)

The # 1 reason) Typing on a tactile keyboard

The # 2 reason) Typing on a tactile keyboard (sooo important it deserves to be stated twice) - while self explanatory, I should say that even after owning the iphone for a year I still could never get used to the onscreen keyboard. I tried everything. I even bought a snap-on keyboard (from a 3^rd party, which I later returned) and a wireless bluetooth keyboard (from apple - it worked great but who wants to carry this around all the time?)

3) unified messaging box - for all emails, phone calls, text messages, bbm's etc - no need to check five different apps

4) more customization options - most importantly, the ability to set different ring tones for different email accounts (work & personal) - with iphone, unless you jailbreak you are stuck with the default ring tone, meaning every time someone in earshot with an iphone or ipad gets email you hear the same sound

5) keyboard shortcuts - once you learn these, it's easy to reply to a message, forward, search by letter in a list, etc “R” for reply, hold key for capital letter, “T” for today (in email), “M” for monthly calendar view, etc, etc – so easy to navigate!

6) smaller and lighter and cheaper than iphone (also less risk of smashing when dropped) – I don’t feel so paranoid about losing the phone or dropping it in the lake – it’s cheaper to replace than an iphone (and arguably less desirable thus lowering the theft risk)

7) better battery life (blackberry = 2 to 3 days of usage; iphone 1 day or less only)

8) calendar app is so much easier to use than the iphone4 - easier to make quick entries, display in different views. also, while minor blackberry allows you to set default reminders of zero minutes (alert goes off when event starts) - can't do this on iphone. not to mention iphone doesn't even allow you to have a default reminder, thus creating another step in the event entry process

9) more comfortable against the ear - maybe it's just me but I find the corner of the iphone4 cuts into the ear when pressed close to hear a caller on the other end

10) better phone signals (iphone4 is the worst cell phone I have ever owned, even after getting the phone replaced once, it still drops calls, cuts out and fails to make outgoing calls on a regular basis)

11) flashing red light alerts you to incoming emails

12) belt holster (yes i am a nerd but it's not really noticeable under a suit and vibrate tone for new messages = fewer missed calls/emails)

13) auto on/off feature (allows use of the alarm; can't do this on an iphone unless you leave the phone on all night, where you will be waken by junk emails in the middle of the night)

14) ability to sync memopad notes & todo lists from outlook (no easy way to do this on iphone)

15) no annoying autospell substituting strange words where they don't belong (for example, on my iphone i typed "...do you mind if i give him.." and iphone auto-typed "...do you mind if i gas him". or i typed on the iphone "home for the holidays" and iphone replaced it with "home for the holocaust". yet another example, i tried to type a business message and it inserted the word "tickling". clearly some different meanings (see www.autocorrectgonebad.com)

16) blackberry opens up to the latest email message when taken out of the holster or unlocked- iphone4 involves annoying steps to check recent email...

17) no annoying auto rotate for the screen like the iphone – on the iphone it was enabled in some apps but not others, and invariably rotated just when you wanted to show someone something on the iphone

Okay so that’s more than ten reasons but you get the point. Of course there are fewer apps than iphone4 but honestly, am I really that upset that I can't download dancing cat apps etc? The only one I really miss is Skype, but perhaps Blackberry will get this one day too. Most other apps are available on Blackberry.

Iphone4 does excel in surfing the web (or "consuming" content, where Blackberry excels at "creating" content) - but I can live with this. Blackberry displays most web sites okay

Tethering (for surfing the web while connected to a laptop) - iphone does do this well - Blackberry can do it too but speeds are slower because data is encrypted

I will say the pinch & zoom feature on iphone is great, but apparently Blackberry is getting this soon too..

The camera (for stills and video) is great on iphone, as is renting & watching TV shows and movies. Okay, so there are some real advantages to iphone4. And if the truth be told, now carry two phones: Blackberry for work, iphone4 for personal. It’s a nice luxury.

Bottom line - Blackberry for work is the only way to go.

Long live the Blackberry eh! :-)

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Newt Gingrich

the ever-cheeky Barron's comes through again with this gem:

As for Newt [Gingrich], he outdid himself by unveiling a lunartic plan to build an American colony on the moon within eight years once he gets past the preliminary nuisance of being elected president. Cynics were quick to seize on the fact that he made the announcement in Cocoa, Fla., in the heart of NASA country, where there's a heap of unhappiness because of layoffs from a much-reduced space program as evidence that the scheme was brazenly political.

But we think that's unfair. For one thing, Newt's indisputably spacey. For another, he's already promised the moon to the voters so there's no reason to doubt his desire to give them a colony on that celestial body as well.


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Doom and Gloom - All About Jobs

More doom and gloom from Barron's:

A tally by the International Labor Organization shows the world will have to add 80 million jobs over 2012 and 2013 just to get back to where employment was in 2007. The reckoning is that the developed nations need to generate 27.2 million jobs in the next two years to return to normal. But the likelihood is that only 2.5 million will materialize, or a woefully shocking 25 million fewer than necessary.

As for the developing nations, even though they've been growing somewhat more aggressively than their more developed counterparts, their employment prospects aren't exactly coruscating, either. They'll have something in the neighborhood of 53 million slots to fill in the next couple of years, but the projection is for the addition of 38 million jobs, or 15 million shy of that mark.

Joseph Quinlan, chief market strategist of U.S. Trust offers this commentary:

"millions of dissatisfied and idle workers are a combustible political-economic variable that will keep politicians and investors on edge for the foreseeable future. Nothing saps the confidence or the animal spirits of consumers, businesses and investors more than the ugly images of rioters in the streets."


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Quote: Hot Peppers

Heard today:

"As my grandpa used to say, that's the thing about a good hot pepper. You get to enjoy it three times."


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Austerity Measures

From Barron's:

Albert Edwards, head of Societe Generale's strategy team, passes along this observation from the bank's interest-rate group:
"As an example of how long it could take to work through a massive austerity program, it was only in 2010 that Germany made the last payment required by the Treaty of Versailles from 1919, which called for reparations of what would be the equivalent of €325bn in today's currency. Back then, the treaty was not particularly popular with the German population [not unlike the current reaction of Greek citizens to Greece's austerity program]. Following the treaty, the German parliamentary republic [the so-called Weimar Republic] fell into a massive crisis and disintegrated quickly. The rest is history. One of the lessons learned is that a nation can only be pushed so far and positive incentives need to be set to guarantee cooperation. After World War II, a different strategy was applied with the Marshall Plan."


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US Debt, Debt and More Debt

from the Economist:

America’s predicted deficits over the next decade come to as much as $12 trillion, to be piled on top of an existing net national debt of around $10 trillion.

By November 23rd, a “supercommittee” of 6 Democrats and 6 Senators (drawn equally from the House of Representatives and the Senate) is supposed to come up with a plan to save at least $1.2 trillion-1.5 trillion from the US budget over the next ten years.

Good luck with that. Not that we're not so high and mighty here in Canada as our debt is a disaster also.



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Surprise

Alan Abelson (from Barron's) always has a way with words:

"The ostensible trigger for the panic was that Ben Bernanke and cohorts on the Fed's Open Market Committee pulled a skunk instead of a rabbit from their bag of monetary tricks."


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From Barron's

i always enjoy Barron's - some good quotes this week:
Anything that smacked of action Beneficent Ben pointedly put off until the Fed's Open Market Committee meets on Sept. 20 and 21. The extra day was added ostensibly to give those worthies more time to argue, but over precisely what -- whether the Yankees or Red Sox would cop the American League pennant? Or, weightier matters like the menu for lunch? -- was purposefully not spelled out.

What struck us as particularly noteworthy was his admission toward the end of the speech that "most of the economic policies that support robust economic growth in the long run are outside the province of the central bank." In other words, the Fed has pretty much done as much as it can. That means, in a neat passing of the buck, that pumping some life into the economy now rests mainly with fiscal policy, which, in turn, means Congress, a prospect that prompts one loud, undiluted "ugh" and is cause enough to abandon all hope.

THERE HAS BEEN NOT a little derision grounded in envy about Warren Buffett's latest coup, his $5 billion investment in Bank of America, an idea he claims he got while taking a bath. It's rare, we suppose, for a legend to reveal just where he got the inspiration for a stunning investment idea, but, hey, why not the bathroom? We think it's great that Warren came clean and, when you ponder it a bit, what better place to contemplate soaking Wall Street's know–it-alls than a bathtub.


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The Case of Sino-Forest

It has been a few days now since the Sino-Forest "take-down" and we can conclude a few interesting things. Certainly the report hit at the heart of investors' fears over China companies, and despite the sensational language contained enough validity to motivate people to act (by selling shares). I personally think that the timing was everything, as the report was released into a market that was already weak, thus allowing the obscure firm, Muddy Waters, to move markets. Where do we go from here? I think that this will prompt more attacks by short sellers, given how profitable this operation was to date. Ultimately this is good for the markets, as tough as it is for the company under scrutiny. Dissenting opinions encourage discussion, and in this case, forced the company to disclose GPS co-ordinates and proof of ownership for facilities visited. This is one of those rare, market defining moments that will forever change the way people do business. Whether it proves to be a fraud or not (I think it is highly unlikely that the entire business is a fraud, even though there may later prove to be some exaggeration along the way), investors will learn to be dissenting and always question what is put in front of them. Research firms will be scrutinized (perhaps registered?) to determine legitimacy going forward. Muddy Waters may have picked the wrong firm to target, as with a billion dollars in cash one can hire a lot of lawyers. Incidentally, if the shares outstanding are to be trusted (likely, since it's a Canadian transfer agent), and the cash is to be trusted (likely, since this is under intense scrutiny and held in international banks), then $1bn divided by ~250mm shares outstanding is ~$4/share in cash, plus value for the business. It's a shame that the markets take a shoot first, ask questions later approach. (whatever happened to innocent until proven guilty?) It makes for interesting viewing to say the least - I only wish I was making money one way or another! (short or long!)

Disclosure: no positions



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Get it through your head Microsoft

After dominating the PC world for so long, mr softy (ie microsoft) is now getting hammered by a competitor they nearly put out of business (in fact some will remember that mr softy invested in apple to keep the company afloat in order to appease the justice department). The issue I have with microsoft is these stupid updates. After being annoyed by 'restart now' reminders for the better part of 2 days (popping up in the middle of what I'm working on in the most inopportune times) I finally bit the bullet and clicked restart). Thus begins a 10-15 minute process of closing all programs and re-opening them to become productive again. The problem is this is like a tax on those who make more money. Case in point, for a professional making $100k, 15 minutes of time is worth about $13. Assuming 6 restarts per year, thus equates to $79. At $300k, this jumps to $238. At $500k , it is $397. And at $1mm per year, $794. Who cares you say? (or more specifically, who cares about the "rich" as they can easily afford the money). The problem is this generates feelings of resentment towards one party: Microsoft, from a heavily influential group with strong purchasing power (those with money). Enter Apple with instant on and minimal updates and you start to see why they are crushing the competition, despite in many cases anti-competitive behavior and bizarre software quirks of their own. For PCs that are seldom used (like a laptop) the situation from Microsoft is more intolerable. In fairness I think mr softy is starting to understand as I hear windows 7 is supposed to be easier to use (although I've never tried it). I viewed the announcement this week of a new operating system from microsoft as a real yawn. who cares? this gravy train is over, with the never-ending cycle of license fees and upgrades. (actually calling the death of microsoft is premature as i love what they are doing in the business accounting/erp software market). but the dominance of apple (with billions generated in media sales from a hardware/software base that's already out there) is the new reality.



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Stop Counting Turkeys

great quote from Market Wizards (William O'Neill) on holding losing stocks. Quit counting your turkeys! (I will have to reproduce it in full when I have more time)


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The Kind of Market We're In

I have a hard time reconciling this market and yet I need to remind myself that this is the market we're in. Valuations in the metals space are seemingly outrageous, and yet every time I sell a stock after a 3x, 4x or 5x gain I immediately regret it as the stock moves even higher. Companies with no revenue, in questionable jurisdictions, that are years away from generating first revenue in a volatile commodity cycle are trading at $1 billion or more. Sooner or later you know the music will stop and yet it keeps going. Stupid people can make a lot of money, in fact they make more money because they are too stupid to sell. It is a crazy market--best to keep playing it until the music stops!


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Disconnect?

Not sure what's going on in the markets these days. Shanghai and the TIPS have rolled over, which suggests to me that inflation expectations are benign while the Chinese market is slowing. Then again, inflation in China (esp. food inflation) is pushing higher and the Chinese central bank is raising rates to cool the economy. In Canada on the other hand, markets are moving higher and oil is also pushing higher, in direct contrast to what's happening in China. The VIX is poking a little higher but generally signals things are quiet on the volatility front. I think QE 2.0, end of year and the holiday season are throwing things off. It appears the US shopping season (marked by Black Friday) is doing well, suggesting that consumers are opening their wallets a little bit at least. Europe is still a mess (and London is stalled), so no help from this group in the near term. The new year is a different ball game altogether, and I think we will start the year down as people sell in January to avoid paying capital gains in 2010. Longer term the commodity run appears to be intact, copper could touch $5.00/lb in 2011, silver looks really good, gold good and zinc good (2 yrs out). Giddyup!



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Reversal Time

In keeping with the spirit of Elliot Wave, they say write more when you are are sure of something and less when you are not sure. While we can't be sure of anything in the markets, there are a lot of warning signs these days. As I wrote on Nov 5/10, when the sentiment is universally bullish it usually means a reversal is coming, and today we got confirmation. Shanghai down 5-6% overnight, which means the commodity rally is on hold for a few days at least or possibly longer. I'm not sure why I'm always surprised that we can give back gains so quickly in the market and reverse all the upward momentum in a matter of days/weeks. All the warning signs were there: lots of new highs, universally bullish sentiment, cracks appearing (in the form of flash crashes), etc, etc means I need to be hyper-vigilant for signs of a reversal. The next question becomes how long is the reversal? Longer term I'm still bullish but we need to digest this correction. Funny too, commentators are blaming fears of a rate hike in China for sparking the correction. A brand new fear for the markets - nothing fundamental but that's what gets blamed today.

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Man Sues Company for Wrongful Dismissal as He is Being Hired

How strange is our modern business world these days? I know a guy who was let go by a company and he sued for wrongful dismissal. He then finds a new job with a new blue chip firm and while he is in final round interviews the blue chip firm acquires his old firm. So in effect he has a wrongful dismissal case case going against the firm that is planning to hire him. Weird indeed!

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